Empirically, September is the worst month of the year to be long the markets, followed closely by October. Of course, this doesn't guarantee anything, as being probabilistic doesn't ensure an outcome, but does mean that particular attention should be paid to this.
As Ubique was long the markets in September, it took the hit in line with the negative month the market showed, with the Golden Ratio showing a loss of -4.82%, Keeping Up with the Joneses realizing -0.05%, and Metallica losing just under 1% (-0.98). All told, this put Ubique down 5.85% in total.
Interestingly, due to the way in which the markets sold off in September, it triggered not only a stop loss for the fund but also a hit a 'stay away' mandate, meaning that for October, we will be hardly in the market at all. This Risk Management overlay is designed to help mitigate against full market collapse, and the S&P500 demonstrated a few pre-collapse conditions during September. Naturally, it could go on to fully recover, but to be here, in the long run, we need to ensure that we limit such downside potential.
Going forward, we have decided to publish all numbers on the website etc, in quarters as opposed to monthly numbers, as to lean more on the long-term approach Ubique should be looked at. Of course, if anyone wants to see the numbers broken down into months/weeks/days etc, this will be available for inspection, however, to keep the website clean and less cluttered, we will be updating the website with quarterly figures, going forward.
As September brings Q3 to a close, we now have Q3's complete return for the period, which was a loss of 6.55%. Over the year, we are still up, a healthy amount, (over 24%) which is above the average annual RoI, so a reversion to the mean makes sense with Q3's results.
Looking into October, as mentioned there will be very light trading postions put on across the board due to one of our filters kicking in, and with Gold not showing any real progress at present, when we do go fully back into the markets in November, we will still be leaning on the markets side rather than gold.
Finally, due to feedback we have received, we have now added a logarithmic growth chart to the website, as 30 years of back history tends to not show early progress and focuses on more recent performance. Now you will be able to see more clearly, the growth, where it has been stagnant and depreciative, and where growth has come from without the impact of compounding. Again, if there is something you would like to see which currently not on the website, please let us know, and we will address it.
If you have any questions or would like to know more about anything mentioned above, feel free to get in contact with us, and we'll happily have a chat with you about it.
Until next time, stay safe, and swing easy.
For more in-depth analysis, everything is on the website for inspection (www.willowoakadvisory.com/ubique)