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Ubique | December 2021 Update

December finished with a slight flourish putting the fund up 2.84% on the month with an overall return for the quarter of -1.47% and 23.04% overall return for the year. The latter half of 2021 wasn't as strong as the first half of the year, where at one point we were over 30% up on the year, but with a CAGR of c.22%, a reversion to the mean wasn't to be unexpected.

In comparison, the S&P500 returned a very bullish 27.27% over the year, meaning that we underperformed that market as a whole in 2021. Looking back at our history and backtesting, this isn't uncommon in individual years, however, over the long term, Ubique generally outperforms the market quite considerably. Most notably, when the S&P underperforms or worse, ends in the red for the year, that is when traditionally Ubique picks up the slack.

There were a lot of lessons learned in 2021, especially as we introduced new strategies to the table, in particular Mettalica, which in the second half of 2021 really didn't stand up well. Of course, short-term performance doesn't really impact our decision-making process for the long term, however, it did give us the opportunity to look at how we could apply this strategy in different and interesting ways which could capture similar gains, whilst lowering the downside potential. Naturally, the evolution of strategies is inevitable over time, as market conditions change, and portfolio structures become more dynamic with the introduction of additional strategies, etc, so this learning curve is ever happening.

Looking forward to 2022, we have some exciting things on the horizon. Structurally, we are looking at different ways we can run the fund, including multiple currencies setups, as well differing risk profiles, allowing a percentage of the portfolio to run at a high or lower risk setup for those with different appetites. This has been something which we have been asked multiple times about, but to date haven't had the ability to provide.

From a trading point of view, we are on the home straight in terms of testing for a few additional currency strategies which are all looking promising. Of course, the home straight is the hardest hurdle to conquer, as this is where we look to test to destruction to see how robust an academic theory is in the real world. By knowing what the potential worst-case scenarios are for a strategy allows us to better manage it in terms of asset allocation and leverage application. if these hold up, then 2022 could see the introduction of a completely uncorrelated asset class being introduced to Ubique, which is very exciting! As a side benefit, all investors who have been given the $10k welcome bonus will be able to draw down upon that quicker, as FX instruments are one of the ways in which this $10k can be obtained from them (for more information on this welcome bonus, please speak to us directly).

As for what we expect to see from 2022, this is harder to determine. We aren't in the fortune-telling business, and we have no way of knowing if 2022 will be the best year on record for the markets or something that will dwarf the great depression. All we can say for now is, our Golden Ratio system still has us firmly in the markets over gold, which is our only leading indicator on future market happenings.

On a side note, and as many of you are already aware, we derive a rebate from our broker from the trades that Ubique takes. As such, we have a policy in which all of this goes to the Willow Oak Foundation which in turn gives to charitable causes around the world. this Christmas, we were able to feed over 450 children in Kibera slums in Nairobi, thanks to the partnership we currently have with ETCO, a youth-led charitable organization based out in Kenya. If you would like to read more on the matter, please see the link below

Christmas Donation


If you have any questions or would like to know more about anything mentioned above, feel free to get in contact with us, and we'll happily have a chat with you about it.


Until next time, stay safe, and swing easy.


For more in-depth analysis, everything is on the website for inspection (www.willowoakadvisory.com/ubique)